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Nate Silver Predicts 58% Chance for Second Date with Matthew

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By Julia Crumpleman

NEW YORK – Fivethirtyeight founder and statistician, Nate Silver, reported to friends today that his algorithms predicts a 58% chance for a second date with Matthew, with whom he went out on a date yesterday.

According to friends and fellow Fivethirtyeight editors, Silver met Matthew, a legal assistant in Manhattan, at a charity event last week and “really hit it off.”  They exchanged numbers and went out to a small Spanish restaurant in Tribeca.  Apparently, things went well but could’ve been better.

“Meeting new people is always hard,” said close friend, Maria Espinoza.  “Especially with all the work Nate does, I know his life is hectic.  And he just gets so much into his own head, you know?  He’s running calculations all the time, predicting the future, studying data.  I think he wanted to make everything perfect, and he just didn’t know how to improvise.”

The night went off script once Silver’s phone died.  Without his primary calculator handy, he tried doing the calculations in his head, distracting him from the conversation with his date.  The naturally gregarious legal assistant reportedly rolled with Silver’s nerves, spouting numbers to derail his calculations.  After dinner, they went for a walk, grabbing frozen yogurt along the way.  Then, a car ran over a puddle of water and soaked them.

Matthew laughed it off, but Silver reportedly became frustrated, ruining the mood.  Silver apologized and admitted that he’s been under a lot of stress lately.  He predicted a 74% success rate for the date earlier in the day but had not taken the puddles into consideration.  He walked Matthew home and said, despite being drenched in dirty street puddle water, he had a good time.  Matthew smiled, according to Silver’s accounting of the story to his friends, and wished him a good night.

“First dates are tricky,” said fellow Fivethirtyeight editor, Jonathan Lineman.  “You just have to feel it out, and Nate was just Nate.  Data consumes his brain.  But at least, he’s confident he’s got a second date.  That guy is never wrong in his predictions.”

Silver’s first date algorithms have an 92% prediction success rate, meaning they predict whether a first date will lead to a second.  According to his predictions, Silver expects a second date with Matthew is 58% likely to occur.

“The odds are decent,” said Lineman, “but Nate seems confident it’ll happen.  Good for him, I say.”

Neither Silver nor Matthew commented on the prediction, and Silver is currently waiting two more days before calling Matthew again.